Teacher turnover rates are increasing according to a number of sources (see below). The rates cluster around 16%.
Our experience watching many school websites monthly certainly bears this out. What turns out to be very surprising though is when the turnover happens. Based on our actual results and estimates, about half the turnover appears on school websites when you would expect it to, from the beginning of the new budget year (July 1) through the typical school opening dates in August and September. The surprise is that the other half takes place in the 9 months when schools are in session. Fortunately for MCH, the schools’ websites give us the opportunity to do that. MCH has set up a system, the MCH Monitor Service, that watches every Monitored school website every month. When there is a change, we update our database of school personnel at that time.
Right now, we cover almost 2.2 million names at the 38,500 schools we Monitor, over 40% of the school universe. Since the end of September we have been adding new names at the rate of about 1% per month on average. Thus, during the “stable” 9 months while schools are open we expect a cumulative change of about 9%. That ties pretty well with the estimates above and our expectation that about half the changes appear during the school year. Please remember that the new names are only half the story. Roughly the same number of teachers has left the schools and we have removed them from our database. As our Monitor coverage continues to grow, we will be Monitoring more than 50% of the school websites and getting the majority of the additions and deletions as they happen.
16% is 480,000 new names added and 480,000 deleted names, half in July, August, and September and the other half in the balance of the 2014-15 school year. There is no reason to think we can’t do it. And it will be good for everyone